Gasgoo Munich- On October 13, the China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA) released its September 2026 dealer inventory survey data. The overall inventory coefficient for the month stood at 1.68 — up 6.3% month-on-month and 24.4% year-on-year, breaching the 1.5 warning threshold.
Image source: China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA)
The traditional "Golden September" failed to deliver its usual luster.
On the demand side, cautious consumers are holding off—waiting for National Day auto shows or year-end deals, which stretches the sales cycle. A steady drip of purchase subsidies, retail price cuts, and financing incentives throughout the year has also diluted the scarcity of traditional peak-season discounts. Expectations for exclusive "Golden September, Silver October" policy windfalls have clearly faded.
On the supply side, automakers front-loaded their year-end volume push in September, flooding the market with new models across price brackets. Multiple brands rolled out limited-time retail incentives, layered on top of local consumer subsidies in many regions—doubling down on both supply and promotions. The market did see marginal improvement from the third week of September, with showroom traffic and orders picking up. Even so, overall retail sales remained under pressure, and dealer inventories continued to climb.
China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data shows September passenger-vehicle retail sales hit 1.618 million units. Based on that figure, total dealer inventory at the end of September is estimated at roughly 2.7 million units—further underscoring the strain on the channel.
Inventory trends diverged across brand types. Premium luxury and imported brands posted an inventory coefficient of 1.54—a 20.2% monthly drop and the only category to see inventories retreat. Joint-venture brands recorded a coefficient of 1.90, up 9.8%, while domestic brands stood at 1.60, a 10.3% increase.
Looking ahead to October, CADA expects passenger-vehicle sales to edge up from September, following a "holiday spike, post-holiday dip" rhythm. The National Day holiday and auto shows should drive up foot traffic and orders. Fresh rounds of local consumer subsidies, coupled with automakers' year-end volume push, may support a monthly sales improvement. Still, the post-holiday market faces downward pressure.
CADA urges dealers to gauge demand rationally and keep inventory in check. The association also recommends stepping up promotion of trade-in and scrappage subsidies, bolstering services to lift consumer confidence, and prioritizing cost efficiency to ward off operational risks.
