Shanghai December 22 (Gasgoo.com) Xu Changming, director of the information resource department of China's State Information Centre, predicted that China's commercial vehicle market will maintain a growth rate of around 9% in the next ten years, lower than the 13.2% during 1999-2009, autofortune.com reported.
Xu told reporters such growth rate is attributable to the following reasons:
First, he estimates the Chinese economy will maintain an average annual growth rate of 9% in the next decade. Second, the high transport-intensity caused by uneven distribution of resources and irrational economic structure. Third, the proportion of freight vehicle traffic will be rising steadily, and the proportion of highway freight volume reached 31.6% in the first ten months of this year.
In the January to October period, China sold 1.09 million medium and heavy commercial vehicles, up 50.7% from a year earlier. The high growth for two consecutive years, Xu thought, are based on two factors: First, the economic recovery has led to the growth rate of major industrial products continuing to rise; second, the abolition of road maintenance fee and the implementation of the "charging by weight” policy has lowed the cost of keeping a car and meanwhile accelerated the scrapping of old heavy vehicles update.
The growth rate of commercial vehicles will show an upward trend in the long term and relatively small fluctuations around that trend in 2011 given the adjustment of industrial policy, namely, it will be slightly lower than 9% next year, but will not fluctuate largely, Xu added.
As a senior economist,Mr. Xu Changming is also the chief editor of the China Automobile Market Forecast, the editor of the Report on Annual Automobile Market Forecastand the International Comparative Study on Heavy-duty Trucks, and has accomplished more than 40 market researches and market forecast projects, according to csid.com.cn.
