China's Domestic Refined Oil Prices Set to Rise, Marking Largest Increase of the Year

Gasgoo Munich- A new price adjustment window opens at midnight on March 9. Driven by the recent surge in global crude, analysts are forecasting the steepest hike in gasoline and diesel prices this year—a move that will directly hit drivers' wallets. This adjustment marks a significant pricing pivot for the domestic refined oil market since 2026.

Image source: CNPC

Global crude has been on a tear. On March 9, WTI briefly touched $110 a barrel before settling at $107.39—an 18.14% intraday jump. Brent crude also hit the $110 mark, trading at $107.5, up 14.81%. It's the first time international benchmarks have shattered the $100 threshold since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.

The rally began earlier. On March 6, light sweet crude for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange surged 10.63%, while Brent crude futures in London climbed 7.59%.

Market estimates suggest the conflict in the Middle East has severely disrupted global supplies, potentially creating a daily shortfall of 7 million to 11 million barrels. In the week since the fighting began, WTI has rallied 35.6% and Brent 27.88%. Last week, both benchmarks climbed back above $90 a barrel.

Kuwait National Petroleum Company declared force majeure on March 7, cutting crude output and refining volumes, according to Xinhua. The decision comes amid threats to shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz from potential hostilities involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran—moves that have intensified fears of a supply crunch.

Those global gains are feeding directly into the domestic market. Forecasts indicate retail price caps for gasoline and diesel will jump by 695 yuan and 670 yuan per tonne, respectively. That translates to a 0.53-yuan increase per liter for 92-grade gasoline, 0.56 yuan for 95-grade, and 0.57 yuan for No. 0 diesel. For a typical 50-liter private car tank, filling up with 92-grade will cost over 25 yuan more, while 95-grade adds about 28 yuan. It stands as the largest hike of the year.