Gasgoo Munich- On Oct. 30, Zhao Fuquan, dean of Tsinghua University's Institute of Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy, delivered a keynote speech at the 2026 Global Chinese Automotive Elite Joint Annual Meeting and the "China Embracing the World" Automotive Industry International Development Forum. He shared his insights on Chinese automakers' global expansion. The logic behind exporting Chinese cars must change: it must shift from chasing scale to profitability and sustainability. The key lies in building a new type of globalized company.
Zhao noted that China's auto exports are poised to peak shortly after a rapid surge, reaching roughly 11.5 million units this year and 15 million by 2030. "The era of easy profits overseas is over," he warned. "Going global is no longer the best solution to intense domestic competition."
He estimates that the global market outside China stands at roughly 55 million units. With the U.S. market accounting for 15 million units remaining largely inaccessible, the actual market for Chinese automakers is only about 40 million units. The trade model of "Made in China, Sold Overseas" is unsustainable, and long-tail issues like after-sales service could become major risks. "Mismanagement could lead to systemic failure," he said.
He cautioned that the Southeast Asian market has already started a price war, becoming a second "Chinese auto market." High tariffs on parts, customs clearance cycles stretching from eight months to a year, a lack of insurance for new energy vehicles, and weak residual value management are all eroding the competitiveness of Chinese products.
"For companies that haven't established competitiveness at home, going global is an unsustainable strategy," Zhao said.
He pointed out that geopolitics is becoming increasingly severe, with tariffs, quotas, and localization requirements stacking up. Localization has become an imperative. Furthermore, "new vehicles"—defined by regional characteristics like data, usage scenarios, compliance, and ecosystems—also demand localized approaches.
However, he emphasized that "basic localization"—limited to manufacturing, supply chains, and product adaptation—is only an initial stage and insufficient to support long-term growth. Companies must push for deep localized operations and build a globally integrated management system. This involves achieving global resource synergy, cross-regional platform reuse, regional profitability, and global brand leadership.
He specifically pointed out that "new joint ventures" are a crucial strategic asset for automakers going global. Joint ventures are the only organizational form that can simultaneously provide "local identity, combined capabilities, market access, and a partner network." They serve as a platform for foreign partners and a vehicle for Chinese companies to sail abroad.
These new joint ventures can help Chinese firms leverage existing networks to go global, address weaknesses in branding, distribution, and compliance, and hedge geopolitical risks through aligned interests. "This requires careful execution; it can achieve a win-win outcome," he said.
He concluded by emphasizing that Chinese automakers' global expansion must be gradual and founded on a long-term perspective. With the goal of globally integrated operations, they must accelerate the construction of new types of globalized companies.
