Shanghai (Gasgoo)- China's passenger vehicle (PV) retail sales are estimated to reach 2 million units in June 2025, reflecting a 13.4% year-on-year (YoY) growth and also a 3.2% month-on-month rise, according to the preliminary data from the China Passenger Car Association ("CPCA").

Of those, new energy vehicles (NEVs) are estimated to contribute around 1.1 million units, with its market penetration rebounding to around 55%.

Weekly sales data reveal distinct fluctuations throughout the month of June. The first week, impacted by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, saw daily average retail sales drop to 42,100 units—down 16.9% year-on-year and 13.9% month-on-month—as market activity cooled compared to early May. Sales gradually recovered in the second week, with daily averages reaching 52,700 units, a 22.7% increase year-on-year though still 4.8% lower than the previous-month period. In the third week, the "618" e-commerce shopping festival boosted consumer enthusiasm, pushing daily retail sales up to a projected 68,600 units—up 10.7% year-on-year and 21.0% from the prior week.

For the final week of the month, with automakers launching half-year-end sales campaigns, daily sales are expected to surge to 101,800 units, representing a 10.1% year-on-year increase and 20.1% growth compared to the month-ago period.

The CPCA commented that the mid-June arrival of the "618" shopping spree prompted automakers to roll out a fresh round of incentives, including fixed-price offers and direct cash discounts. Field research by the association indicates that average vehicle discounts reached approximately 25.2%—up from mid-May—driving a notable increase in showroom traffic.

China's automobile market has maintained strong momentum in the first half of 2025, largely supported by the government's nationwide vehicle trade-in program. As of May 31, the Ministry of Commerce reported 4.12 million subsidy applications for vehicle replacements, making the program the primary driver of incremental growth in the auto sector this year.

However, the CPCA also noted short-term headwinds: several local governments are experiencing funding shortages for trade-in subsidies, prompting some cities to temporarily halt applications for vehicle replacement incentives. While this has created a "last-chance rush" effect among consumers—leading to a short-term sales boost—delays in the next round of funding approvals could deepen consumer hesitation, potentially pulling forward demand and dampening market potential in the third quarter.

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