China’s new energy passenger vehicle wholesales likely to surge 51% YoY in Nov. 2024: CPCA

Shanghai (Gasgoo)- Preliminary data from the China Passenger Car Association ("CPCA") estimates that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles (NEPVs) in China would reach 1.46 million units in November 2024, reflecting a 51% year-on-year surge and a 6% rise from October.

For clarity, the passenger vehicles hereby refer to cars, MPVs, and SUVs locally produced on the Chinese Mainland.

BYD Seagull; photo credit: BYD

The car market maintained strong momentum in November, fueled by the continued impact of vehicle scrappage and trade-in subsidies. Additionally, automakers capitalized on promotional opportunities during the "Double 11" shopping season and the Auto Guangzhou 2024, further boosting consumer interest.

According to China's Ministry of Commerce, as of November 18, applications for national subsidies for vehicle scrappage and trade-in exceeded 4 million, with over 2 million applications in each category. The subsidies on vehicle trade-ins, though implemented for a shorter period, have shown faster incremental growth than the vehicle scrappage subsidies. The differentiated subsidy policy provides 20,000 yuan for purchasing NEPVs compared to 15,000 yuan for oil-fueled passenger vehicles with engines of 2.0 liters or less. This 5,000-yuan advantage for NEPVs, combined with local incentives averaging an additional 3,000 yuan per car, has driven most consumers opting for scrappage or trade-in to choose NEPVs. The subsidies particularly boosted entry-level electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

Leading new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturers have further expanded their market dominance, with penetration rates for NEPVs remaining high. The CPCA's data shows that in October, wholesale sales from the manufacturers selling over 10,000 units monthly accounted for 93.8% of total NEPV sales. Based on this trend, November sales from these manufacturers are estimated at 1.37 million units, supporting the overall wholesale forecast of 1.46 million units.