China’s auto sales in 2020 forecasted to rise 1%, CPCA

Shanghai (Gasgoo)- China's auto market is going to maintain a high-quality development with both auto sales and PV sales in 2020 forecasted to rise 1% year on year, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) said on November 16 at an industrial forum.

According to Mr. Cui's report, China will strive to reach a NEV sales target of 2 million units for the year of 2020, while a conservative estimate of the annual sales is about 1.6 million units.

Mr. Cui made the optimistic outlook partly due to relatively small base as a result of the prolonged downturn lasting so far this year. After ten months through October, China's wholesale volume of locally-produced PVs (including cars, SUVs, MPVs and minibuses) totaled 17,199,056 units, sliding 10.8% year on year, according to the CPCA.

As for China's 2019 PV market, the slowing consumption demand, the longer cycle of consumers replacing their current cars with new ones and the OEMs' sliding profit all indicate a dismal market climate that has somewhat curbed the country's economic growth, said Mr. Cui.

He added that the growth in car sales volume is picking up; the MPV market is experiencing a phase of adjustment with the demand of lower-priced products sharply shrinking, while the SUV market posts evident sales slowdown with the strength gap among brands becoming increasingly larger. Although overall sales have been continuously waning, the consumers' demands in premium cars are still increased.

China will still be the core driver to the global NEV market, said Mr. Cui. Nevertheless, the reduced government subsidies for NEVs have directly affected the second-half NEV sales. As of October, China's NEV sales had represented decrease for the fourth month in a row. China's self-owned brands boasted absolutely bigger advantage in BEV field, while joint-venture brands feature more presence in PHEV area.

Aside from the aforementioned analysis, China's moves for relaxing car purchase restriction also make the association predict a rebound in next year's auto market. In late August, China's authority unveiled guidelines to boost domestic consumption, including the possible relaxation or cancellation of the automobile purchase restriction policy amid the year-long slide in auto sales.