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Subsidy phasing out may have little effect on leading companies
Echo From Gasgoo| November 16 , 2017

china nev subsidy phase out

Shanghai (Gasgoo)- Yesterday it was said that the subsidy for new energy vehicles (NEVs) might phase out, which led to a severe drop of NEVs' stocks. In stock market, lithium battery and bus segment both underwent serious drops, companies like Changyuan Group, Salt Lake Corporation, Lead Intelligent, and King Long Motor, etc all dropped sharply, and Yutong Bus dropped by 7.19% and BYD 5.94%.

According to Sinolink Securities, it seems to be the worst once the news is be confirmed, but the reality might turn out in positive way, and the phase-out policy is not necessarily applicable to all vehicles. It might be adjusted down according to the function of vehicles. The analysis believes that, the policy would not pose much pressure on the whole industry. It would only eliminate some marginalized companies dependent on subsidies, while those leading companies would maintain their dominant positions and gain more market shares through improving their technology.

Yutong Bus sold 46,000 vehicles from January to October of this year, and 11,100 of them were NEVs. According to some analysts, the sales of October alone show a positive increase, and the decrease of the total sales was due to the policy adjustment of the first half year, yet we can see from the current orders that the sales afterwards will grow compared to last year.

In terms of secondary market, considerable decrease of subsidy brought much shock to lithium battery enterprises. Ye Yuhong, Zhuxi Venture[LX1]  partner said: "Actually new energy buses have showed signs of structural excess early to the beginning of this year. As such, the problem that the capacity surplus of low-end power battery and capacity deficiency of high-end power battery also persisted. It was not exposed until the policy adjustment, yet was foreseeable long before that."

The insiders of Guoxuan High-tech revealed that, for a new emerging industry, China would grant substantial support at the beginning, but as the technology and market began to mature, the subsidy would go down accordingly, and China would shift the focus to give guidance on technology and function. The law also applies to lithium battery development. In the future, companies who have advantageous technology dominate the market.

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