Gasgoo Munich- The State Council recently issued the "15th Five-Year Plan Carbon Peaking Action Plan," designating the period as a pivotal phase for peaking carbon emissions and setting hard quantitative targets for low-carbon development in the transportation sector. The document explicitly aims for new energy vehicles (NEVs) to account for 30% of total vehicle ownership by 2030, while requiring commercial NEVs to reach a 25% share.
Data from the Ministry of Public Security as of June 2026 puts total motor vehicle ownership at 476 million units, including 371 million cars. Domestic NEV ownership stands at 48.97 million, representing just 13.19% of the total car stock — a shortfall of nearly 17 percentage points compared to the 30% long-term target.
While the penetration rate of new NEV sales is nearing 50% — signaling rapid electrification among new models — vast numbers of legacy gasoline vehicles remain in daily use. The transition of the existing fleet is lagging significantly, meaning that relying solely on new NEV additions will make it difficult to meet the overall ownership targets on time.
Industry consensus suggests the logic for automotive decarbonization during the 15th Five-Year Plan period will shift fundamentally. Historically, the sector focused on boosting NEV sales to lift overall low-carbon performance; moving forward, it must balance expanding the new vehicle market with phasing out legacy internal combustion engine vehicles. High-intensity, high-emission commercial vehicles — including urban heavy-duty trucks, taxis, and buses — are the primary targets for replacement. Given their high mileage and substantial carbon footprint, accelerating the electrification of these fleets can significantly shorten the path to meeting carbon targets.
To ensure implementation, policy planning is deploying multiple support mechanisms in parallel. On one hand, targeted fiscal subsidies will incentivize owners and logistics companies to replace older vehicles. On the other, the government is pushing for the advancement of diverse powertrain technologies — including pure electric and hydrogen — while simultaneously building out a comprehensive infrastructure network for charging, battery swapping, and hydrogen refueling to resolve operational bottlenecks. The broader automotive supply chain must now shoulder the primary burden of reducing transportation emissions, ensuring the steady realization of national carbon peaking goals.
