Gasgoo Munich- On July 2, at the "2026 China Automotive Decarbonization and Sustainability Summit and High-Efficiency Technology & New Materials Forum" hosted by Gasgoo, Qiu Jincao, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Passenger Vehicle Powertrain Professional Committee and Senior Technical Manager of Powertrain Kinematics at the Pan Asia Technical Automotive Center (PATAC), stated: "Given the current carbon footprint of electricity, our battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are virtually neck and neck. If renewable power can be integrated into the grid on a massive scale in the future, BEVs could dominate. But if that problem isn't solved, green fuels will likely hold greater potential."
Qiu Jincao, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Passenger Vehicle Powertrain Professional Committee and Senior Technical Manager of Powertrain Kinematics at PATAC
Ultimately, the source of electricity profoundly influences the carbon reduction potential of different technological pathways, thereby shaping the strategic choices the automotive industry makes in its low-carbon transition.
Calculating the Real-World Carbon Ledger
To many, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) seem inherently cleaner over their full lifecycle because they produce zero emissions during use. However, data presented by Qiu based on "real-world energy consumption" challenges this linear thinking.
He pointed out that current carbon calculations can no longer rely on regulatory fuel consumption figures; they must focus on real-world energy usage. Take SUVs, which currently account for over 60% of the Chinese market. Comparing a 100 kWh BEV with a 40 kWh PHEV over a 200,000 km lifecycle yields a thought-provoking result: their carbon emissions data are surprisingly close.
Why does this happen? The key variable is the carbon footprint on the manufacturing side. Qiu shared a critical set of figures: based on China's current average power battery carbon footprint of 83.5 kilograms of CO2 per kWh, a 110 kWh battery pack carries over 9 tons of carbon emissions before it even leaves the factory. That is equivalent to the emissions generated by burning more than 3,000 liters of gasoline in an internal combustion engine vehicle. This means that before a BEV even hits the road, it has already overdrafted heavily on its "carbon account."
"Many of our previous carbon calculations were based on compact sedans, where the pure electric advantage was obvious," Qiu explained. "But when it comes to mid-size and large vehicles, the situation changes dramatically." He emphasized that future carbon modeling must focus on emissions in real-world environments, not merely satisfying regulations. The gap between regulations and reality is exactly what policymakers globally will focus on next. If the power mix doesn't see fundamental improvement, simply increasing battery capacity is not directly equivalent to being low-carbon.
Exports Facing Headwinds? Look at How Japan Broke Through
Discussing the challenges facing Chinese auto exports, Qiu offered a data analogy with deep historical resonance: China's 2026 export landscape is essentially Japan's 1981. In 1980, Japanese passenger car exports broke the 6 million mark for the first time, only to face "minimum price" and "export quota" restrictions from Europe and the U.S. in 1981. This scenario mirrors the trade barriers Chinese automakers are currently encountering in Europe and North America.
But Japanese automakers did not halt their progress. Qiu noted that facing these barriers, they didn't fight head-on; instead, they swiftly adjusted their strategy. After 1981, direct exports from Japan stabilized below 6 million units. In contrast, production at overseas bases surged, expanding from 890,000 units in 1985 to 16.36 million units in 2025. Once overseas investment reached a certain scale, Europe began gradually reducing barriers starting in 1993, eventually implementing a tariff-free policy for imported Japanese passenger cars by June 2026.
This experience holds significant reference value for Chinese automakers. "Outbound investment and expansion are inevitable trends," Qiu concluded. Facing the current game of new regulations like "phased minimum pricing," Chinese companies must do more than compete on price; they need to focus on building overseas factories, localizing supply chains, and integrating into local ecosystems. The "Dual Carbon" policy is not just environmental pressure—it is a key to breaking geopolitical deadlocks. Green investment in overseas bases could, in fact, become the breakthrough point for shattering trade barriers.
In the Era of Big Batteries, Why the Engine Remains a Key Variable
As the electric range of plug-in hybrids and extended-range vehicles grows, a voice within the industry suggests that since electricity is used most of the time, has the engine been relegated to "spare tire" status? In response, Qiu offered a firm answer from PATAC: batteries are getting larger, but the engine itself remains a critical reference point for extended-range and plug-in hybrid vehicles—perhaps even more so than before.
He cited tracking data from 10,000 GL8 PHEV users to prove this point. The data shows that electric mileage accounts for 73.4% of usage. However, if you exclude the roughly 20% of "heavy business users," private users with a 24 kWh battery can achieve over 90% electric usage. This means that the remaining 10% of depleted-battery scenarios determines the baseline of user experience—whether the vehicle is "a dragon when charged, a worm when depleted," or composed under all driving conditions.
This is also why PATAC continues to obsess over engine thermal efficiency. While marketed figures often claim 47% or 48%, third-party reverse engineering measurements show that the mainstream level in China actually sits between 40.5% and 42.5%. In contrast, PATAC's ninth-generation Ecotec engine achieves a measured peak thermal efficiency of 43.26% under real-world vehicle boundary conditions. This translates to an improvement of over 10% in fuel consumption when the battery is depleted, and a 90% reduction in wear on key friction pairs over 240,000 kilometers.
"Our development goal is to build a car that can be used for 15, 20 years, or even a lifetime—we do not treat the vehicle as an ordinary consumer good," Qiu stated. He emphasized that regarding future carbon-neutral fuels, liquid fuels remain the most efficient carrier for passenger vehicles. Policy direction may lean toward synthetic gasoline or diesel, but regardless, improving internal combustion engine efficiency under extreme conditions is not just about meeting China VII emission standards. It is about ensuring carbon emissions remain controllable in scenarios where electricity cannot reach. The more reliable and advanced the engine, and the more rational the hybrid strategy, the more it ensures users can use electricity freely and oil with confidence across more scenarios. This is the pragmatic foundation that "powertrain diversification" should possess.
