Selling 10.2 mln vehicles in 2009, dream or fantasy?

China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) has upgraded its forecast for this year's automobile sales to 10.2 million units, with year-on-year growth rate of 8.7 percent, up from the 5 percent projection earlier this year, said Dong Yang, its deputy director.

To sell 10.2 million vehicles in 2009, is it a dream or a fantasy? You can make your dream come true with diligent efforts, but the fantasy, seems far far away and unrealistic.

The association modified its forecast after vehicle sales hit a monthly record in April, the second consecutive month since March, with a year-on-year growth of 25 percent.

However, in the first quarter, the total revenues of 19 major automakers reached 268.6 billion yuan, dropping 14.2 percent, with their combined profits diving 48.36 percent year-on-year, according to CAAM.

The low-emission cars, which are eligible for government subsidies, were the major force behind the rapid sales growth. Uncertainty still surrounds the auto market, and if situation changes, 10 million units of last year's sales target may be hard to fulfill, let alone 10.2 million.

It seems 2009 will be an optimistic year for China's automobile market, but we all should be cautious amid the gloomy global environment.