Opel: BAIC is Back, GM wants Euro quarantine, Germany worries about pensions

Representatives of China’s BAIC are on their way to Frankfurt, where they will pile in limos with the proper branding and go to nearby Rüsselsheim. There, they will receive entry to the inner sanctum of Opel: The due diligence room.

Opel will open wide and BAIC will be able to inspect books, trade secrets, business plans. The next step will be a binding offer, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung [sub] reports. In the coming weeks, BAIC Chairman Xu Heyi himself will land in Frankfurt and will present his plan to unions in Rüsselsheim and politicos in Berlin. Xu knows how to deal with the Germans. His company has a successful joint venture with Daimler.

Two items become apparent:

1.) BAIC didn’t really mean it when they announced that they had it with the foreign deals and that they are walking. This is a common stratagem in Chinese negotiations. Either the other side comes running after you. Or you go back. Or the deal is off.

2.) Berlin is getting impatient with the GM/Magna/Sberbank et al. bickering. BAIC has been a welcome bogeyman to focus the attention of the bargaining parties. The Chinese found that out quickly and said the sellers are not sincere. They won’t come back as bogeymen. Admittance to the due diligence room demands sincerity on both sides.

The winds are changing. If Magna and GM won’t get their act together, Berlin may really sell Opel to China and get it over with.

According to Automobilwoche [sub] BAIC’s first offer had been sweeter than that of Magna or Fiat. Officially, it came too late. In the meantime, public sentiment in Germany has turned against bailouts. The Social Democrats that favored Magna were handed a crushing election defeat in the EU elections, which are regarded as a test for the all-important national elections in September. If the Chinese bring money to the table, instead of Germany financing a sell-out to Russia, the deal could lead to interesting results in the polling stations.

Reuters writes that several sticking points are holding up the negotiations between GM, Magna, and the government. GM wants Opel to stay in Europe and not tread on China or the US. The German government doesn’t want to get stuck with €4 billion in pension payments should Opel go under. Smaller issues have busted deals.