Ford to overtake GM as No.1 US automaker

Ford Motor Co., gaining ground on its distressed domestic competitors, may surpass General Motors Corp. this year to become the top-selling automaker in the U.S. for the first time since 1931.

The new GM will emerge from bankruptcy as soon as today with just four car lines, down from eight, aiming for 18.5 percent of the U.S. auto market. Those four surviving brands, Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick and GMC, accounted for 16.5 percent of the market in June, according to Autodata Corp. Ford's share was 17.2 percent, excluding Volvo, which it is selling.

Surpassing GM would validate Ford's strategy to go it alone and spurn government aid. While GM and Chrysler LLC seek to change themselves through bankruptcy, Ford benefits from its status as the only independent major U.S. automaker as it builds momentum, said John Wolkonowicz, an industry analyst with IHS Global Insight of Lexington, Massachusetts.

"Ford is on a real roll right now," Wolkonowicz said. "Ford could overtake GM this year."

To hang on to first place, GM must retain most of the buyers from the Pontiac line it is discontinuing. Wolkonowicz said that will be a challenge.

"A lot of Pontiac buyers, young, blue-collar women, may not like the rest of the GM lineup," Wolkonowicz said. "They're certainly not going to buy a Buick."

GM first overtook Ford in 1927 as Henry Ford halted production to switch from building the Model T to the Model A. Ford recaptured the lead in 1929-30. GM pulled ahead in 1931 and never looked back, until now, said Wolkonowicz.

No 'Natural Reason'

Defending its 78-year-old U.S. sales supremacy will be challenging, even after Volvo is sold, GM marketing chief Mark LaNeve told reporters in a June 1 conference call.

"We'll have four brands, they have three," LaNeve said. "There won't be any natural reason why we should be that far ahead of them."