Automakers may signal recovery with U.S. sales gain

U.S. auto sales may run at a faster pace in November from a year earlier for just the second month in 2009 in a sign that the industry is starting to rebound.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate will be 10.5 million cars and light trucks, the average estimate of 7 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. That would be up from 10.17 million in November 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

A November increase would be the first this year without government aid. The August pace climbed to 14.09 million as the U.S. Transportation Department offered "cash for clunkers" incentives of as much as $4,500 for buyers who traded in older, less fuel-efficient cars from July 27 to Aug. 24.

"The market has bottomed and has entered a stage of stabilization, but we don't expect to reach an advanced stage of recovery until the third or fourth quarter of next year," said Joe Barker, an analyst at CSM Worldwide Inc., a consulting firm based in Northville, Michigan.

Manufacturers, suppliers and dealers use the sales rate to compare monthly totals by taking into account seasonal buying patterns. U.S. sales were 13.2 million in 2008, after averaging 16.8 million this decade through 2007. August's pace was this year's highest, and the lowest was February's 9.11 million.

General Motors Co. may say its sales this month rose 5.8 percent and Ford Motor Co. may report a 4.1 percent gain, based on the average estimates of five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Chrysler Group LLC's sales probably fell 27 percent, according to the analysts.

Asian Automakers

Among Japanese companies, Nissan Motor Co. sales rose 8.5 percent, Toyota Motor Corp.'s gained 4.5 percent and Honda Motor Co.'s were up less than 1 percent, based on the averages of two analysts' estimates.

Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea's largest automaker, may report a 37 percent increase, according to Edmunds.com, a market-research firm in Santa Monica, California.

The analysts' estimates are adjusted for this month having 23 sales days, two fewer than in November 2008. Some automakers report adjusted figures, which would be about 8 percentage points higher than the unadjusted numbers used by Bloomberg.

Automakers benefited from the comparison to November 2008, when the sales rate was the lowest last year. During that month, U.S. companies cut 533,000 jobs, and GM and Chrysler said they would run short of cash without government aid.