Dec. U.S. auto sales show 'slog' as Ford improves

U.S. auto sales probably rose in December, signaling a recovery in 2010 after a year marked by the bankruptcies of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC and the fewest new vehicles delivered in almost three decades.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate may be 11.1 million cars and light trucks, according to the average estimate of eight analysts in a Bloomberg survey. That would be up from 10.3 million in December 2008 and 10.9 million in November, marking the second straight monthly gain, according to Bloomberg data.

The year may end with 10.4 million new cars and light trucks sold, the fewest since 1982, when the country had one- quarter fewer adults. Ford Motor Co. gained further market share, analysts said, building on its increasing reputation for high quality and good will for avoiding a government bailout.

"We're looking at a slow, fragile recovery in 2010," said Mirko Mikelic, senior portfolio manager at Fifth Third Asset Management in Grand Rapids, Michigan, which manages $19 billion in assets. "It will be a slow slog. With the wind down of brands, GM's going to be paying the price. And Ford will benefit."

GM, based in Detroit, is shedding Saab, Saturn, Pontiac and Hummer to concentrate on its four remaining U.S. brands: Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick and GMC.

In 1982, the U.S. had 177 million driving-age adults, 36 percent fewer than now, said Sean McAlinden, chief economist for the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan. At the time, 59 new vehicles were sold per 1,000 adults, he said, compared with 42 this year.

"That would make it a worse recession than 1980-82" and indicate significant pent-up demand, he said.

Increase Forecast

Sales in 2010 may rise 19 percent to 12.4 million because of the need for new vehicles and improving availability of consumer credit, McAlinden said. Other preliminary forecasts for industrywide sales range from Chrysler's outlook of about 10.8 million to Ford's 12.3 million.

Chrysler declined to elaborate on its 2010 forecast, issued last month as part of its five-year plan.

U.S. sales totaled 13.2 million in 2008, according to Autodata Corp., after averaging 16.8 million this decade through 2007.