Ford, GM, Chrysler will grow for next five years: survey

A growing number of auto executives expect Ford, General Motors and Chrysler to gain market share globally over the next five years — but expectations are even higher for Chinese automakers, Volkswagen and Hyundai, according to the 12th annual survey by KPMG, an audit, tax and consulting firm.

The survey asked 200 senior executives from global automakers and suppliers a variety of questions between Nov. 1 and early December 2010. About half of the executives are based in Europe, while one-quarter are in Asia and the other quarter are in North America.

The percentage of respondents who expect each of the Detroit Three to expand their slices of the global pie by 2015 rose. The percentage expecting Ford to gain market share rose to 43% from 29% a year ago; 40% see GM picking up share, up from 13% in 2010, and 24% expect Chrysler gaining share, up from 7.5% last year when its future was in question.

“The restructuring efforts of the past several years have helped U.S. auto manufacturers emerge more efficient and more competitive,” said Gary Silberg, leader of KPMG’s automotive industry group.

Opportunities for growth remain strongest in China, India, Brazil and Russia. That’s a primary reason 81% of those surveyed expected Chinese brands, such as SAIC, Chery, Geely, Dongfeng and BYD, to add market share. The other most likely to expand are Volkswagen (75%) and Hyundai/Kia (72%).

Ford, GM and Chrysler likely will sell more cars outside the U.S. in the next five years, but one reason industry leaders see them likely to gain global share is that the U.S. market, long considered a mature market is growing again in the wake of the worst downturn since the Great Depression. Americans bought 11% more cars and trucks last year than in 2009. Forecasts for 2011 call for sales to grow at least 12%, as well as another 12% to 15% in 2012.

“The U.S. is a growth market again,” said Betsy Meter, a KPMG partner who helped analyze the survey results. “There are still headwinds here. We’ve got to get unemployment and the budget deficit under control.”

That will attract investments such as Volkswagen’s new $1 billion assembly plant in Chattanooga, Tenn., where production will begin by the end of March. Toyota plans to begin making Corollas at its new assembly plant near Tupelo, Miss.

The survey generated a lukewarm outlook for alternative fuel vehicles. Seven of 10 respondents said it will take at least four years before any company can make an electric vehicle that is as affordable as a comparable size gas-only vehicle.

More than a third (38%) said continued government subsidies are necessary to make electric vehicles affordable, but nearly half (43%) said they predict that government subsidies for alternative fuel vehicles will decline in the next five years.