Chinese CV market could maintain growth in 2009

Despite the global market downturn this year, China still saw a 30% growth in the heavy truck market this year. Klaus Paur, Regional Director of TNS North Asia, forecasted that Chinese commercial vehicle(CV) market would maintain growth amid the global financial crisis in an exclusive interview with gasgoo.com.

FORECAST ON 2009 CV MARKET

Gasgoo.com: As the ongoing global financial crisis impacts the real economy, what do you think of the Chinese commercial vehicle market trend next year?

Klaus Paur: As you know, the Chinese government has adopted a financial support program, and will inject around $580 billion into the market to boost the infrastructure and the economy, which will indirectly have a positive impact on the Chinese commercial vehicle market. And this is why we expect that next year will be not as tough as you could have imagined if there was no such a boost from the government.

Gasgoo.com: But the grow rate would come down?

Klaus Paur: We have seen this year a relatively good growth rate in the commercial vehicle, specifically in the truck market. You can imagine from the development of the overall market that it will be slowing down next year, but still we expect in the truck market, specifically in the heavy truck market, a quite considerable growth rate. This year you can see a growth of about 30% in the heavy truck market, probably it would not have such a high rate next year, but still I think it could have a double digit growth.

REACTION OF CV MAKERS AND SUPPLIERS

Gasgoo.com: How should Chinese commercial vehicle manufacturers and their suppliers react to the new situation, such as how to adjust production capacity?

Klaus Paur: They need to be careful and adapt their strategy to the market development. It is clear that you have to make adjustments in your production capacity, because if you have overproduction, then obviously you are sitting on stock, and this is always painful and costs a lot of money. So I think what the commercial vehicle manufacturers and their suppliers have to do is to evaluate the opportunities for sales and to adapt capacities sufficiently early in order to avoid to suffer from overproduction at a certain moment of time.

They also need to adapt their production range. For example, we could see that there are more construction activities, and probably there would be more demand on heavy trucks, so you may need to shift the capacity to the products that are needed in the market, in order to avoid that you have a shortage of attractive models. So I think this is a very important exercise that the commercial vehicle manufacturers have to do in order to be well prepared to the situation in the future.

POTENTIAL FOR CHINESE CV MAKERS TO BE GLOBAL GIANTS

Gasgoo.com: Do you think the Chinese commercial vehicle manufacturers have the potential to become world class? 

Klaus Paur: In the long term, we can expect at least one or maybe two companies to be world class, but it still takes some time. I think there is still a lot of development to do, the Chinese vehicle manufacturers today are having the right products for the emerging and the lower-tier market places, but as markets become more sophisticated, customers become more demanding in terms of products, safety, and other aspects. I think in the long term, we will have Chinese manufacturers present, but they are not yet in this position.

Gasgoo.com: The "at least one or maybe two companies" would be FAW, or Dongfeng, or Zhongqi, or Foton or any others?

Klaus Paur: It's difficult to say, but what is always important to develop into a world class company, is that you have got the investment and the power to do it. And you have FAW, which is extremely powerful, and I could imagine that they are having the substance to have such a development over the long term.

As for Beiqi Foton, they had some decreasing sales this year, and they may have to put much more efforts in order to sustain the substance and this power, because it is always important for the commercial vehicle as for the passenger car market, that you only can be successful in the foreign market, if you are successful at home already. So the first condition for your success abroad is that you are successful at home.

Klaus Paur, Regional Director of TNS North Asia, has over 20 years of experience in marketing and market research, 13 of which have been spent specialising in the automotive industry. Prior to his current role in China, Klaus worked at TNS Automotive headquarters in Paris where he directed a major research programme across Europe and Latin America analysing automotive advertising effectiveness.  Heading up the automotive research practice for TNS in China since 2003, Klaus also holds responsibility for business activities in Greater China and Korea, and plays a co-ordinating role within the entire TNS North Asia Region.