China’s PV market cools after Golden September, but NEVs to hit record 60% penetration in October

Shanghai (Gasgoo)- The months of September and October, traditionally known as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season for passenger vehicle sales in China, have long been a barometer of the industry's annual performance. This October, data show a growing divide between new energy vehicles (NEVs) and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle models. Combined with evolving consumer sentiment and shifting policy dynamics, the market exhibited a distinctive pattern of movement.

According to the latest survey by the China Passenger Car Association ("CPCA"), leading automakers—accounting for nearly 80% of total market sales—set relatively optimistic retail targets for October, maintaining levels similar to September. However, with post-holiday demand cooling, the CPCA projects that passenger vehicle retail sales will reach around 2.2 million units, representing a 2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year decline.

Of those, retail sales of NEVs are expected to hit approximately 1.32 million units in October, pushing market penetration to around 60%—a historic high. The surge underscores the continued erosion of ICE vehicle market share as electrification gains further momentum.

For clarity, the passenger vehicles mentioned here are all locally produced on the Chinese mainland.

Weekly sales trends reveal that holiday timing had a pronounced impact on October's market performance.

In the first week of October, an eight-day National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday curtailed showroom activity, with automakers mainly focused on collecting orders rather than deliveries. Daily retail averaged only 43,500 units—down 18.4% year-on-year and 4.7% month-on-month.

After the holidays, deliveries accelerated sharply. In the second week, daily retail volumes surged to 87,800 units—up 10.8% from a year earlier and 43.5% from the corresponding period in September—marking the month's sales peak.

By the third week, as backlogged orders were fulfilled, market enthusiasm subsided. Average daily sales slipped to 61,300 units, down 6.1% year-on-year and 4.5% month-on-month.

The fourth week saw a stabilization in retail activity, with daily sales averaging 69,000 units—down 9% from a year earlier and 22% from the comparable week in September.

In the final week, expectations of upcoming policy shifts and year-end sales pushes drove a late rebound. Daily retail sales were estimated at 118,300 units, up 12.5% year-on-year but 15.9% lower than the month-ago period.

The CPCA noted that retail performance was subdued at the start of October, as the extended holiday period and a surge in outbound travel diverted consumer attention from car shopping. "In September, retail sales strengthened week by week, while in October they cooled progressively," the association said, describing the pattern as a normal feature of the "Golden September, Silver October" cycle.