It is amazing. Unemployment is still relatively low. Farm prices are at record levels, the economy is not growing fast, but there is little evidence that it is in sharp decline. Still, every bit of financial news gets a negative twist. According to the media, falling unemployment is bad news, because it means people have given up looking for work. A pickup in home sales is worrisome because it means prices are still falling. The estimates of auto sales this year keep sliding, too. Instead of earlier forecasts of 16 million units in the U.S., many estimates have fallen from 15.7 million to 15.5 million. I have even seen estimates below 15 million. Personally, I still think that the industry can sell more than 16 million units, similar to what it did last year, but I am clearly a minority of one. Some might say the problem is the fault of the automakers and that sales would be better if all cars were small wonders getting 40 miles to the gallon. None of us objects to 40 mpg, but I will quote my friend Drew Winter, the editor of Ward’s Auto World in Detroit: "You will get laughed out of a room suggesting that electronics companies should invest all their energies into developing modest, small-screen televisions that are easy on the electric bill, or insisting that Manolo Blahnik ignore fashion and focus instead on making plain, comfortable women’s shoes."
Apr. 14 , 2008




