Plug-in cars may not soon cut oil use, CO2 emissions

Sales of plug-in cars, touted by the Obama administration and automakers as a way to curb oil use and greenhouse gases, may be held back for decades by battery costs, a study for the U.S. government found.

Rechargeable autos in 2010 may cost $18,000 more to build than conventional gasoline cars because of their lithium-ion batteries, the National Research Council of the National Academies said in a summary of the study today. Batteries probably won't be cheap enough until 2030 to spur sales that would reduce oil use and carbon pollution.

"Battery technology has been developing rapidly, but steep declines in cost do not appear likely over the next couple of decades," the council said in the report. "While these costs will come down, a fundamental breakthrough in battery technology, unforeseen at present, would be needed to make plug- ins widely affordable in the near future."

The findings cast doubts on plans by General Motors Co., Nissan Motor Co. and startups Tesla Motors Inc. and Fisker Automotive Inc. to sell high volumes of lithium-ion powered models in the next few years. The more than 18-month study, relying on university and industry research, U.S. labs and consultants, was sponsored by the Energy Department. The government often uses National Academies data to guide policy.

Plug-ins are hybrid-electric vehicles that can be recharged at household outlets. The study suggests conventional hybrids that don't need to be plugged in, such as Toyota Motor Corp.'s Prius, may be a better near-term option for curbing oil use.