Gasgoo.com (Shanghai Dec 11) The professionals have a general belief that the auto market will have a higher increase in 2016 although the overall performance won’t be too optimistic. PWC’s automobile analyst team Autofacts published predicts on 10 December that, China’s light vehicles will have a total production volume of 25m in 2016, with an increase of 8.2% compared with 2015; the volume will reach 30.9m in 2021, with an annual compound growth rate of 5.0% between 2015 to 2021.
Autofacts’s data also shows that, influenced by the sluggish macroeconomic performance, real sales volume decreased 0.1% and 2.9% in June and July respectively. The total light vehicle sales volume reaches 14.3m in China from January to September this year, compared with 13.6m in 2014. The 4.8% sales growth is still at a low level.
“Influenced by the slow economic growth and other factors, China’s light vehicle sales growth from January to September decreases from 8.3% in 2014 to 4.8% in 2015, which is at the bottom during the past few years.” Jin Jun, partner of PWC Consulting, said,” Our analysis on sales performance also reveals that the market is stepping out of bottom, influenced by the policy incentives.”
Compared with foreign brands, national brands’market share has a significant increase of 4.7% till September 2015, followed by Japanese brands with 0.4%, while the market share of American brands, Korean brands and EU brands have a decrease of 0.5%, 2% and 2.6% respectively.
Recently, the holding of Paris Climate Change Conference and the continuous heavy haze hanging over China have induced overall attention on energy conservation, emission reduction and fuel efficiency. Jin Jun points out that,” After a decade’s rapid growth, it’s predicted that the future 5-10 years will be an important period for alternative energy vehicles’industrialization, especially for BEVs. Currently, domestic brands are dominant in the BEV market. From January to October, sales volume of domestic BEVs reaches 125,000 units, with an increase of 190%. The top ten models all belong to Chinese brands, accounting for 75% of total sales.”
Autofacts predicts the global light vehicles will reach a total production volume of 92.7m units, increasing 5.1% with 2015; the volume number will be 108.7m in 2021, with an annual compound growth rate of 3.6% between 2015 to 2021.
EU released the world’s strictest carbon emission standard in 2014, putting forward higher requirements for energy conservation, emission reduction and fuel efficiency. Although the expanding Volkswagen’s diesel scandaland the resulting change of top management may have an impact on large OEM groups’powertrain strategy, the Chinese market is different. Diesel engines will still play an important role in EU market’s process of achieving carbon emission target and other substitutes exist in this market. Rick Hanna, partner of PWC Global Automobile, said that,”In the short- and mid-term, mild HEVs and full HEVs are predicted to become the most economical substitutes. At the same time, PHEVs are also predicted to have a rapid growth in Europe. Till 2020, alternative energy vehicles’ market share will increase steadily, but diesel vehicles will still take the dominant position.”
