The Road Ahead: China's Passenger Vehicle Market In 2015

Booz Allen Hamilton --- Every executive wishes for a crystal ball that could provide a glimpse into the future and reveal what his or her industry will be like in ten years. While that’s likely to remain a n impossible dream, it doesn’t hurt to look for the next best thing. In 1999, when the Shanghai Municipal Government asked Booz Allen Hamilton to review the impact on Shanghai of China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), we made a number of predictions on where the Chinese auto market would be today that have largely been borne out; many have exceeded even our most optimistic expectation.

Today, we’re looking into the future again and painting a picture of what China’s auto market will be like in 2015 across six key dimensions: over market; regulatory context; products and market; manufacturing and assembly; supply base; and branding, sales, and the aftermarket. We highlight five major trends and the accompanying market discontinuities and how vehicle manufacturers, suppliers, and other market participants can best prepare for them.