Survey: Views on the Guiyang registration plate lottery

Gasgoo.com (Shanghai) - Declining sales in the Chinese automobile market have caused several manufacturers' returns to constrict. As a result, the effects of any new government policy should be immediately apparent. Earlier this month, the city of Guiyang, Guizhou surprisingly implemented a Beijing-style registration plate lottery, causing a huge stir in the industry. However, the new legislation is receiving a much harsher greeting than its Beijing counterpart, with countless industry figures casting their doubts on the subject. There has even been some accusing the policy being the result of 'lazy government'. Gasgoo.com (Chinese) recently concluded a week-long survey on the topic, with over 1,300 industry experts participating.

The first question on the survey was on what Guiyang's new policy demonstrated, with 50 percent of the respondents saying that it reflected on the government's desire to find quick and easy solutions to traffic congestion problems. Said respondents were dissatisfied with the government's refusal to tackle the fundamental causes behind the problems. Furthermore, the rapidly expanding city of Guiyang's recent decision goes against the central government's legislation to prevent other cities from implementing Beijing-style policies. Meanwhile, 33 percent of the respondents answered that the policies reflect on the increasing contradiction between limited infrastructure and a rapidly growing number of cars. The remaining 17 percent believed that the policy showed that the automobile industry has not properly considered the impact of increasing car sales on environmental resources, which may cause industry growth to slow.

The second survey question asked how respondents viewed on what effects policies such as the ones implemented in Guiyang would have on the automobile industry if applied to the country as a whole. 49 percent responded that industry growth would slow down but remain positive, while 40 percent anticipated negative growth. These fears aren't entirely baseless, with Head of the China Automobile Dealers Association's marketing division Su Hui pointing out that the Beijing market contracted 60 percent this year from over 370,000 vehicles to only 150,000. After rapid growth in the country's automobile industry over the last decade, and especially within the last two years, the large drop in sales has caused much attention to be drawn to the issue of vehicle purchase restriction policies. As sales in first-tier cities dwindle, manufacturers have been aiming their sights towards second- and third-tier cities.

The third question was regarding opinions on the central government's right to restrict municipal authorities from enacting their own vehicle purchase restrictions. 24 percent of respondents agreed that the government should intervene to protect the industry to some degree, while 14 percent had no clear opinion on the issue. However, the overwhelming majority, 62 percent, believed that the central government is fundamentally incapable of fixing traffic congestion problems, which tie into a whole slew of other issues, such as environmental concerns and legal disputes. According to the respondents, some cities have no choice but to implement such policies. The central government would have a tough balancing act on its hands, trying to prevent traffic congestion and environmental problems, while ensuring industry growth is sustained. 

When looking back at the Beijing and Shanghai vehicle purchase restriction policies, traffic congestion problems have still not been solved. Excessive growth in the number of vehicles on China's roads has been paired with building impediments and flawed traffic infrastructure. However, without a better solution, the policies are the only thing preventing congestion from causing larger social problems. Even in cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen, disproportionate traffic volume is a very apparent problem. Shenzhen currently has over 1.7 million vehicles on its roads, which are estimated to only be able to hold 2.1 million vehicles. Meanwhile, authorities in Guangzhou have been quoted as saying that, at the current rate of expansion, average speeds for vehicles at rush hour looks to decrease to 17.8 kilometers per hour, only slightly over double the speed of the walking speed of an average adult. Guiyang has already shown that these problems are now spreading to second- and third-tier cities.

The final question presented asked whether or not respondents believed that vehicle restriction policies were a long-term phenomenon. In the light of a rapidly growing economy, 45 percent of respondents answered that they were not optimistic for the automobile industry and believed that the policies would continue for the long-term. Meanwhile, 41 percent said that they believed that the policies were only temporary.

The Guiyang decision represents a major turning point for the Chinese automobile industry. With already eleven cities in the country with more than 1 million cars on their roads, finding solutions to the problems of pollution, fuel consumption and traffic congestions are becoming ever more urgent. Whether domestic or foreign, this is the reality that manufacturers cannot escape in the Chinese market.