Analysis: The future of dual-clutch transmission technology in the wake of second mass recall of DSG-driven VWs

Gasgoo.com (Shanghai) - Volkswagen has recently announced a recall of 640,309 Chinese cars and minivans due to a suspected flaw in which the synthetic oil in the vehicles' DSG transmission systems may cause an electrical problem. VW has promised to replace the synthetic oil with mineral oil, while simultaneously updating the transmission system's control software. This marks the second large-scale recall announced by VW in the country and has once again aroused suspicion about the build quality of their DSG transmissions. To better understand industry viewpoints on the recent trouble with the transmission systems, Gasgoo.com (Chinese) held a weeklong survey, inviting 1,563 analysts and figures to answer questions regarding the issue.

This latest recall has brought VW under heavy scrutiny. In the first question of the survey, participants were asked how they perceive this recall, with two-thirds of them stating that the manufacturer should have ordered it much earlier than they actually did. Only one-third of the participants maintained that VW's recall was done promptly.

As the Chinese car market continues to mature, consumers are holding manufacturers to increasingly higher standards. Only by showing that they are willing to be responsible for the safety and convenience of their vehicles can manufacturers hope to maintain a positive image in the country. Promptly issuing a recall if an issue with their vehicles does happen to occur is one example of that.

VW's track record on actively issuing recalls in China has been relatively poor. Despite the fact that issues with its DSG gearboxes began appearing as early as 2009, the manufacturer took over three years to acknowledge that a problem existed. After heavy pressure from the National Development and Reform Commission and the media, VW finally announced a recall in March of this year, over three years after announcing a similar recall in the US.

Although the current recall is not entirely identical to the one announced earlier this year, both are linked to VW's DSG transmission systems. The timing of this recall has led many in the industry to raise doubts regarding the stability of the technology. In the survey's second question, participants were asked if they believe the fix that VW has offered will eliminate the problem or not. The majority of participants, 63 percent, were unconvinced that it would, while only 13 percent said that it would. The remaining 24 percent were undecided.

There are several reasons why many in the industry are doubtful about VW's latest recall. On the one hand, VW's decision to use less insulative and lubricative mineral oil to replace the synthetic oil used in the transmission systems has baffled many experts. Tsinghua University Director of the Automotive Technology Research Institute Song Jian called the decision "puzzling", asking if VW "had made a mistake with its announcement?" On the other hand, this recall does not mark the first time VW has announced that it will perform a software upgrade to the gearbox's electronics, with a similar update having been applied in March's recall. Not only did that upgrade not entirely solve the issues consumers were having, but it actually caused new problems in some vehicles. At the moment there does not seem to be a lot of confidence that VW will be able to promptly solve this current problem.

There is also a lot of uncertainty regarding the stability of dual-clutch transmission technology in general. When asked about the possibility of similar issues occurring in dual-clutch transmissions in other automobiles, 63 percent of participants agreed with the notion. Only 11 percent of participants were confident in the technology, while the remaining 26 percent were undecided.

VW is not the only manufacturer of dual-clutch transmission equipped automobiles, with Ford, Fiat, Qoros, Roewe and BYD also offering dual-clutch driven vehicles. According to statistics compiled by Gasgoo.com (Chinese), over 200 models equipped with dual-clutch transmissions are sold in China currently. If all of these models experienced similar problems to VW's, several million vehicles would be affected. Ford has already received complaints about strange vibrations and noises in its dual-clutch transmission powered models. Ford even went as far as abandoning dual-clutch technology for its New Mondeo, instead opting for a manumatic transmission. Although other manufacturers have not seen problems on the same scale as VW, experts caution that dual-clutch transmissions usually tend to run into problems after 20,000 km of use.

In the fifth question of the survey, participants were asked how confident they felt about dual-clutch gearbox technology. The majority, 57 percent, stated that the technology was not yet mature, and still needed time before reaching perfection, while 32 percent said that technology was limited by design. The remaining 11 percent of respondents were undecided.

In theory, dual-clutch transmissions should offer quicker gear shift times than contemporary automatic transmissions. However, the technology has been tainted by concerns about quality concerns. An editorial in US publication Autoblog states that dual-clutch transmissions will not be able to supersede standard automatic transmissions in the short-term, due in part to driver unfamiliarity with the technology. Furthermore, the Association of German Engineers previously released a statement saying that the design of dry DSG technology was fundamentally flawed, alleging that at low speeds gear shifts were too unsmooth, leading to strange vibrations and noises. In their report, they advocated instead for the use of more expensive wet dual-clutch transmissions.

Finally, participants were asked to predict which manufacturer of dual-clutch transmissions would follow in VW's footsteps. One-third of respondents said that Ford would fall prey to the same problems VW is currently facing. BYD and Fiat gained 18 percent and seven percent of the votes, respectively. However, due to the fact that no other manufacturer in China has unveiled dual-clutch transmission technology in their vehicles on a large scale, 42 percent of survey participants were undecided.

As concerns about dual-clutch transmissions and other new technology continue to mount, automobile manufacturers need to respect the rights and safety of Chinese consumers if they hope to maintain their brand image and sales in the country.