The right stuff

It is amazing. Unemployment is still relatively low. Farm prices are at record levels, the economy is not growing fast, but there is little evidence that it is in sharp decline. Still, every bit of financial news gets a negative twist. According to the media, falling unemployment is bad news, because it means people have given up looking for work. A pickup in home sales is worrisome because it means prices are still falling.

The estimates of auto sales this year keep sliding, too. Instead of earlier forecasts of 16 million units in the U.S., many estimates have fallen from 15.7 million to 15.5 million. I have even seen estimates below 15 million. Personally, I still think that the industry can sell more than 16 million units, similar to what it did last year, but I am clearly a minority of one.

Some might say the problem is the fault of the automakers and that sales would be better if all cars were small wonders getting 40 miles to the gallon.

None of us objects to 40 mpg, but I will quote my friend Drew Winter, the editor of Ward’s Auto World in Detroit: "You will get laughed out of a room suggesting that electronics companies should invest all their energies into developing modest, small-screen televisions that are easy on the electric bill, or insisting that Manolo Blahnik ignore fashion and focus instead on making plain, comfortable women’s shoes."

You get the idea. I say that if it is a lousy year, it is not because of the cars. I have just returned from the New York auto show, and can say with certainty that if this year is a flop, it is not the fault of the car companies. They have the right stuff.

Start with Chevrolet. This fall, Chevy gets the Traverse, a big crossover sport utility vehicle. The new Chevy Camaro sporty coupe finally arrives early next year. Both look like big winners.

Pontiac showed three upcoming models at the auto show. Next February, it will add a removable hardtop coupe to its Solstice lineup. Pontiac’s new G8 rear-drive sedan just went on sale, but late next year GM will add a third version, the GXP, with an extra powerful V-8 motor. About the same time, Pontiac will get a G8-based pickup, similar to the El Camino of yesteryear. These new vehicles will not be big volume sellers, but they will create buzz and justify that old Pontiac motto, "We Build Excitement."

Ford Motor could have a high-volume winner with its new Flex, a big boxy anti-minivan people hauler, going on sale this summer. Lincoln has a new model coming, too: the big MKS sedan, which could help the ongoing sales revival at Ford’s domestic luxury division.

Chrysler showed production versions of its new Dodge Challenger sport coupe. The expensive 425 horsepower version is on sale now, and the tamer models arrive this fall. The Dodge Journey--a midsize crossover and a crucial test to see if Chrysler can finally crack this important market--just went on sale.

Toyota Motor is adding yet another sport utility vehicle, the Venza, a most handsome vehicle, coming late this year. Nissan Motor showed a bigger, sexier, new Maxima sedan, which will go on sale in early summer. The company also displayed a little boxy model, appropriately called the Cube, which arrives here early next year.

Honda Motor displayed its next generation FIT fuel-efficient small car. The new FIT comes this fall, and it is way slicker than today’s model. The Acura division of Honda is getting a new TSX sedan this spring. Acura will also have a four-cylinder diesel next year. Hyundai polished up its Sonata sedan, which just went on sale, and a new upscale four-door rear-drive sedan, called Genesis, is coming in early summer. Next spring Hyundai will add a companion rear-drive coupe to the Genesis lineup.

Kia showed a sexy coupe and said that it will produce it one day. Suzuki displayed some large (for Suzuki) sleek sedans that preview vehicles it is likely to build. BMW had its 1 series, just on sale, and X6 models, coming at the end of April, out for viewing. I also saw several attractive wagons, such as the shapely Volvo XC60 wagon, coming next spring, and the new Audi A4 wagon, part of the new A4 line coming this fall.

Volkswagen is trying a comeback, too, with a Chrysler-built minivan due this fall, a new small SUV called Tiguan this May and a new gorgeous four-door version of the Passat called the CC Coupe (because it looks like a coupe) in September.

Ford and Dodge have new pickups coming later this year and they and GM will have pickup diesels with serious fuel economy improvements in 2010. More hybrids are on the way, too, including plug-in hybrids that General Motors, Toyota, Nissan and others are developing. And Mercedes will be making diesel SUVs in its Alabama plant in a few months.

Yes, the economy has slowed, and yes, gasoline prices are rising. The auto industry cannot do much about that. If sales are as bad as some predict, and much worse than I predict, we cannot blame the carmakers. Not this time.