Gasgoo.com (Shanghai December 12) - Despite slowing sales growth rates in the Chinese automobile market, several industry figures are fairly optimistic regarding prospects for next year. In a report appearing today, Gasgoo.com (Chinese) compiled a selection of market predictions from influential industry figures.
Shanghai GM General Manager Ye Yongming
"As the automobile market enters a period of slow growth, competition between enterprises is shifting from manufacturing to pricing. I believe that growth in the domestic passenger automobile market will be around eight percent; total sales will be between 15.2 million and 15.4 million vehicles. I predict the Chinese economy as a whole to perform better next year than this one, with GDP growth at eight percent. However, the domestic automobile market may have to deal with [the issue of] more cities announcing policies limiting automobile sales and other problems."
Dongfeng Honda Executive Vice President Chen Binbo
"Growth rates for the automobile market next year will be around five percent. Furthermore, pressure on Japanese manufacturers will be even larger. The aftermath from the Diaoyu Island incident will not begin fading away until next August."
BAIC Sales President Dong Haiyang
"I don't believe that growth in the Chinese automobile market is 'slow' this year. [Rather], [2012] is the start of a period of normal [growth rates]. It is highly irregular for the market to grow 30 percent or 40 percent annually. I believe that growth rates within ten percent are normal. As for individual enterprises, I feel that they should enact [proper] pricing management [policies]. Conducting good R&D, manufacturing, price control, aftermarket service and brand management work is very important to BAIC."
Haima Head of Sales Tang Si
"Looking at the Chinese automobile market, [growth rates] tend to cycle every four years. In 2004, 2008 and 2012, it experienced low points. The market reorganizing itself every four years is similar to the stock market. Both visible and invisible factors will become evident during [this] process."
Dongfeng Citroën General Manager Pan Jianian
"To date, the Chinese automobile market has experienced three major periods of rapid growth. From 2011 onwards, the… market entered a period of steady growth, with average growth rates within ten percent. 2013 will be an exception. Following steady growth of seven percent in 2010 and 2011, there will be a period of slightly escalated growth [next year], with predicted rates between ten percent and 15 percent."
Renault China Executive President Chen Guozhang
"The ratio of automobiles for every thousand citizens in China is still extremely low, having not even reached the ten percent mark. Therefore, I believe that from the beginning to middle of next year there will be a rebound in sales. Due to the large size of the market, demand should be relatively strong. In summary, the market should make a turnaround next year, with steady growth rates of 15 percent being reasonable."
Guangqi Fiat General Manager Zheng Congming
"Regarding next year's market, I personally believe that increased unification between cities and countryside will be a major point of growth for the Chinese economy. 2013 will be an important growth year for the global economy, especially in major cities worldwide. China will play an important role. I feel the Chinese market will perform strongly next year, with it being able to maintain a growth rate of ten percent."
Lifan Group Vice President and Lifan Motors General Manager Liao Xionghui
"The market next year will not witness large growth, but rather continue to maintain so-called 'slow growth'. [There is] a close relationship between the automobile industry and the economy [as a whole]. Currency inflation rates will not be low, average household income will not grow very fast and purchasing power will weaken. As a result, prospects for the industry don't look very promising. Development in the automobile industry will be hampered by three factors: environmental concerns, traffic congestion and limited energy resources. Restrictions on new registration plates in Beijing, Shanghai, Guiyang and Guangzhou have [already] had a direct effect on automobile purchases."
Beijing Hyundai Executive Vice President Li Feng
"Looking ahead to the market next year, I personally believe there is an opportunity for growth to exceed ten percent. There are two reason why this growth [will be achieved]: on one hand, the automobile industry is becoming more mature and organizing its resources better, allowing average automobile prices to continue to decrease at a rate of two to five percent annually. On the other hand, consumers' incomes are continuously growing, which is increasing overall buying power and further driving demand."
