A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (III)

Part One.  The change in the global auto industry pattern

1. The global auto industry will not undergo structural change, nor will the U.S. auto industry vanish

1) The new "6+3" + X mode is expected to take shape, and the global auto industry map is slightly adjusted

The "6+3" in the traditional sense refers to the global passenger vehicle market dominated by six auto giant groups or alliances, and three large-scale independent auto companies, that is, GM-Fiat-Suzuki-Fuji Heavy Industries-Isuzu Group, Ford-Mazda-Volvo Car Group, Daimler-Chrysler-Mitsubishi Group, Toyota-Daihatsu-Hino Group, Volkswagen-Scania Group, Renault-Nissan-Samsung Group, plus Honda, Peugeot-Citroen and BMW.

However, with the passage of time, the traditional sense of the "6+3" began to change significantly in 2005.

General Motors gave up its Fiat shares for $ 1.5 billion in February 2005, sold all the shares of Fuji Heavy Industries in October 2005, had its stake in Isuzu cleared in April 2006, and sold all the shares of Suzuki in 2006 and 2008. GM entered bankruptcy protection proceedings earlier this year, with Opel and Saab to be sold.

Daimler-Chrysler Group went apart in May 2007. Hyundai-Kia is not included in the "6+3" but achieved global sales of 4.15 million vehicles in 2008, leading Honda by nearly 400,000 units and ranking sixth in car sales worldwide. The traditional sense of the "6 +3" has already disappeared, and the global auto industry's new map has been undergoing slight adjustment.

Financial crisis has accelerated the adjustment process of the global automotive territory, most notably in the changes experienced by North America's Big Three: Two years after its separation from Daimler, Chrysler was not viable and was re-integrated by Fiat, and GM and Ford keep scrapping and selling their sub-brands or assets to protect themselves. A series of changes in the global auto industry may lead to a new "6+3" + X pattern.

The six new groups include Japan's Toyota Group, Germany's Volkswagen Group, the new GM and Ford, the Japanese-European joint group Renault-Nissan Alliance, and the new Fiat-Chrysler Alliance (which may attract new members). The three minor groups include Hyundai-Kia, Honda and Peugeot-Citroen.

In addition, Daimler, BMW, several Japanese car companies including Suzuki, and the ever-growing automakers in emerging markets such as China and India are also players to be reckoned with in the global auto industry.

According to the global auto sales of an estimated 58 million units in 2008, the new "6+3" automakers achieved more than 80% market share of the global auto industry.

(To be continued)