A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (IV)

2) The significant adjustment of the global auto industry pattern will not evolve into any structural change
 
According to our surveys and analysis, some 90% of the experts believe that, although its pattern has been noticeably adjusted and it will have more variables at its later stages, the global auto industry will not undergo a structural change. The biggest two suspense factors are: Will GM drop out of the first league? Will the new Fiat-Chrysler Alliance become a big success?

Nearly 60% of the online survey voters believe that GM will not drop out of the first league of the global auto industry in this crisis, and over 80% of the off-line experts share this view.

GM plans to completely shed its Hummer, Saturn, Pontiac, Saab units, but sales of the four brands in 2008 stood at 720,000 units together, less than 10% of GM's total sales volume of the year. However, the ultimate destination of Opel will influence GM's future. More than 60% of the experts in our surveys believe that the joint acquisition of Opel by Magna and Russian financial consortium Sberbank will benefit the new GM, and it is possible that after weathering the difficult times, the new GM will buy back its Opel brand.

The new Fiat-Chrysler Alliance is currently till in preparation, and it is unclear yet how the two companies will be finally integrated and how they will operate. The Daimler-Chrysler integration ended in failure after some years. Can Fiat reverse this situation? In the auto industry, there are mixed responses to this question, and more than 60% of the online voting is negative. The fate of Chrysler is one of the largest wildcards for the pattern of the future auto industry.

3) Although it is heavily hit, the U.S. auto industry will not perish

Although two of the three U.S. auto giants filed for bankruptcy protection and more unpredictable factors will occur in future, Ford Motor, as the only one U.S. automaker not funded by the government, is also badly hurt, and auto-parts enterprises suffered much heavier losses. But more than 90% of the online survey voting showed that U.S. auto industry will not decline (even to extinction) as the United Kingdom's. There are three main reasons:

First of all, speaking from the macro-environment, the financial crisis has made the U.S. government pay more attention to the real economy. Despite much opposition, the Obama administration has urged General Motors to make cars locally in the U.S. to save the country's auto industry. This best illustrates the government's great efforts in this aspect;

Second, the vast and recovering U.S. auto market will also provide good market environment for the local American automakers to survive;

Finally, the United States is still leading the global auto industry in many fields of auto technology. After the crisis, the U.S. Big Three auto companies will have a rebirth and continue to maintain their considerable competitive edges.

(To be continued)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (I)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (II)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (III)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (V)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (VI)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (VII)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (VIII)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (IX)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (X)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (XI)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (XII)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (XIII)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (XIV)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (XV)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (XVI)

A Research Report on the Change in Global Auto Industry (XVII)