European carmakers' 2009 results will show that government-backed scrapping incentives shielded the industry from the worst of the fall-out from a harsh crisis, but outlooks will reflect growing uncertainty as schemes wane.
Thanks to the schemes, the European car market managed a fall of just 1.6 percent in unit sales last year, despite a worldwide industry crisis that sparked consolidation and forced two U.S. carmakers into insolvency.
Some incentives have ended, are due to end, or are hanging in limbo in some major markets, and carmakers fear that any hint of an underlying recovery in demand will not be enough to prevent a second sales dip.
Italy's Fiat (FIA.MI) last week reported an upbeat set of full-year results, with a healthy 1.1 billion-euro ($1.5 billion) trading profit.
The decision to pay a small dividend proved that the company thinks the worst of the crisis is behind it, analysts said.
However, Fiat Chief Executive Sergio Marchionne warned that without incentives the group's 2010 trading profit could be flat.
Details on an extension of Italy's scrapping scheme are expected in mid-February.
According to Starmine SmartEstimate -- an average of forecasts which weights analysts based on their track record -- French carmaker Renault will post a net loss of 2.593 billion euros ($3.61 billion) on Feb 11. The forecast was based on 20 analysts' estimates.
PSA Peugeot Citroen, Europe's second-largest carmaker, is expected to post a net loss of 1.028 billion euros, according to SmartEstimate.
The French carmakers are likely to be cautious about 2010. In France scrapping incentives -- albeit reduced -- are due to continue until the end of the year.
